The Bangladeshi government is instituting a nationwide lockdown from July 1 for seven days. Its population will be required to remain at home except in emergencies in order to try and reverse the rising wave of Covid-19 cases the country faces.

As a result of the lockdown, industrial supply chain interruptions are expected as factories close and productivity is reduced, according to analysis from Panjiva, a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As Panjiva’s report notes, this reverses a trend seen earlier in the pandemic when Bangladeshi apparel manufacturers suffered order cancellations from retailers across the US and Europe, which at that point were facing a decrease in demand from their home markets.

Panjiva’s data indicates that Bangladeshi exporters of apparel to the US have remained resilient during the pandemic, with shipments in the three months to April 30 down by just 1.6 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Compared this to exporters from India and Sri Lanka, which saw declines of 10.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.

US shipments linked to H&M increased 13.5 percent in the three months to May 31 compared with the same period in 2019, leaving the Swedish fast fashion giant particularly exposed to supply chain disruptions in Bangladesh. Imports associated with Levi Strauss & Co. and PVH, on the other hand, fell 47.8 percent and 68.7 percent, respectively, over the same period