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Jumei Poised for Best Monthly Gain after Business Model Shift

Jumei International Holding Ltd. is on track for the biggest monthly gain on record as investors project higher sales growth after the Chinese e-commerce company improved quality controls and boosted its image.
Fashion on Jumei | Source: Jumei
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  • Bloomberg

BEIJING, China — Jumei International Holding Ltd. is on track for the biggest monthly gain on record as investors project higher sales growth after the Chinese e-commerce company improved quality controls and boosted its image.

Beijing-based Jumei, which sells beauty products online, rose 6.7 percent to a three-month high of $17.26 in New York. It has surged 26 percent in March, the biggest advance since its U.S. debut last May. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Asia’s largest Internet company, extended its slide into a third day while American depositary receipts of online retailer JD.com Inc. climbed to a six-month high. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index added 0.2 percent for a seventh day of gains.

Shares of Jumei, which tumbled 38 percent last year, have surged 31 percent since March 16, when it gave a first-quarter sales forecast that beat analysts’ estimates. Revenue growth will accelerate to 56 percent in 2015, according to projections compiled by Bloomberg, after slowing in the past two quarters as Jumei removed third-party sellers in an anti-counterfeiting campaign. Taking direct control of its supply chain will help Jumei increase revenue, JP Capital Corp. says.

“Now that they’ve completed their business model transition, the company is pretty confident about the first and second quarters,” Henry Guo, a senior analyst at JG Capital, said by phone from San Francisco. “Counterfeit products are no longer an issue. They have a better brand image now. It is a positive for the longer term.”

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Counterfeit Crackdown

Net revenue this quarter will rise to between $224.5 million and $232.3 million, Jumei said March 16, representing a year-over-year growth rate of as much as 50 percent. That compares with a $216.6 million average of five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales climbed 19 percent in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period and 28 percent in the third.

Jumei’s gross profit margin decreased in 2014 while the company transitioned from a sales platform enabling third-party transactions into an online store with direct control over its merchandise. The company removed sellers last year as authorities cracked down on trademark infringements and sales of fake goods on the Internet.

Jumei received a 100 percent authenticity rating in “multiple e-commerce product sampling tests” performed by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce in 2014, it said in a March 16 statement.

The company credited its anticipated first-quarter sales growth to its Jumei Global platform, which buys overseas cosmetics directly from manufacturers. The business started in September and gained momentum in late December, Chief Executive Officer Leo Chen said in a March 17 earnings call.

'Compelling Valuation'

“Jumei Global will be the new revenue driver this year as competitive pricing, authenticity guarantees and logistics will help Jumei grab market share from smaller merchants on Alibaba’s Taobao marketplace,” Xiaoyan Wang,a Shanghai-based analyst with 86Research Ltd., said by phone. “It has compelling valuation after the price drop last year. The price will rebound if it delivers first-quarter results.”

Alibaba slipped 0.7 percent to $83.63, taking its decline this year to 20 percent. JD.com gained 2.6 percent to $29.74 in New York, the strongest level since September.

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The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF slipped 0.1 percent to $40.77 while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, the largest Chinese exchange-traded fund in the U.S., dropped 0.5 percent to $43.

By: Belinda Cao and Stephen Stapczynski; editors: Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Marie-France Han.

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