NEW YORK, United States — Nordstrom Inc.'s share price is outperforming Macy's Inc. as investors bet its earnings will accelerate more than its rival's in 2015.

Nordstrom, the Seattle-based department-store chain, has climbed 12 percent since April 3 and Macy’s has fallen 2.7 percent as their stock-price ratio is rising from an almost eight-year low -- see chart. This ratio has increased in five of the past six months and now is near an 11-month high as Nordstrom shares closed at $71.20 Friday and Cincinnati-based Macy’s was at $58.98.

Investors are favoring Nordstrom because its earnings growth could outpace Macy’s, particularly if it appears the company’s “fairly heavy investment period” in its business will end in 2015, according to Michael Binetti, an analyst at UBS AG in New York. Macy’s “seems to be closer to peak margins,” he said.

Binetti forecasts Nordstrom earnings will grow 10.6 percent in fiscal year 2015, up from 7 percent in the current fiscal year; Macy’s earnings could expand 11.5 percent from 10.8 percent in the comparable periods. Nordstrom’s emphasis on e-commerce investing has been “one of the heaviest across all of retail,” which is helping drive high single-digit revenue growth. Meanwhile, Macy’s saw a post-recession boost from acquiring other businesses, so it’s “tough” to expect another such strategy soon that will further accelerate its bottom-line.

This pair trade -- with investors buying Nordstrom and shorting Macy’s -- is rising after four years of declines, largely because of the timing of the companies’ internal investment plans. In 2010, Macy’s earnings began to benefit from the integration of its acquisitions, including Federated Department Stores Inc., Binetti said. Nordstrom faced higher costs from building its e-commerce business starting in 2012, which suppressed earnings and contributed to the stock’s relative weakness, he said.

A downtrend in place since January 2010 broke earlier this year -- see chart -- and now the pair-trade ratio has moved above this key level, said Jim Stellakis, founder and director of research at Technical Alpha Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. The change offers a “great contrarian set-up” as investors increasingly shift money out of Macy’s and into Nordstrom -- a strategy that isn’t fully reflected in analysts’ recommendations yet, he said.

About 71 percent of analysts have a buy recommendation on Macy’s, compared with 38 percent for Nordstrom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price target for Nordstrom -- at $71.20 for the next 12 months -- reflects no boost to its current share price, whereas Macy’s $64.10 target is 8.7 percent higher than the current level, based on the consensus of analysts’ forecasts.

The relative strength of Nordstrom shares doesn’t necessarily suggest problems for Macy’s, Binetti said. Rather, its story as “a most-improved and embraced department store” is well-known among investors at this point.

Nordstrom leading Macy’s reflects a broader shift as some investors are “focusing on areas of safety” within the stock market, said Lance Roberts, who helps oversee $600 million as chief strategist for STA Wealth in Houston. Macy’s benefited more from the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative- easing program, even though its fundamentals weren’t as strong as Nordstrom, he said.

Now, the “massive liquidity binge” is unwinding while the broader market recently fell 7.4 percent in about a month, so traders have been shifting out of riskier assets. This type of pair trade is “really great for clarifying where investors see risks within the market,” Roberts said.

By: Anna-Louise Jackson; Anthony Feld; Editors: Anthony Feld, Melinda Grenier, Carlos Torres.