Hello BoF Professionals, welcome to our latest members-only briefing. China’s colossal size and dynamism makes it a top priority for any global business, but it remains opaque to many in the fashion industry. Leveraging our rare access and local knowledge, the BoF China team demystifies the Chinese market with weekly industry analysis and the wider socio-cultural context you need to sharpen your focus.

[ China’s Economic Woes Bite Global Luxury PlayersOpens in new window ]

Fears over China’s slowing growth, an escalating trade war and government crackdown on grey market imports have sent luxury stocks tumbling, but Chinese consumers might still come to the rescue.

SHANGHAI, China — It's no secret that China's macroeconomic situation has been deteriorating for some time. But the past few weeks have thrown this narrative into sharp relief, with the official release of third-quarter GDP growth, at 6.5 percent the slowest in nine years. Adding to the more downbeat outlook is the country's monstrous hidden debt load putting pressure on the yuan, Shanghai's stock market achieving the dubious honour of worst performing in the world for the year (down 25 percent since January) and ongoing uncertainty stemming from China's trade war with the US, which shows no sign of abating.

According to Kevin Lai, chief economist, Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets, the most serious of these problems is a debt to GDP ratio that has already reached 300 percent, by some accounts.

“This year things have started to tumble because this debt burden is just too much,” he says, adding that the impacts of the trade war are yet to filter down as orders are front-loaded ahead of the January 1 deadline, when tariffs are expected to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent.

“It will take a while, maybe a few more months or half a year before it starts to hit household incomes, jobs and consumer confidence. So, the impact on consumption will not be felt until later next year.”

The impact on luxury so far

The $121 billion that Chinese consumers spent on luxury purchases last year accounted for 32 percent of the global luxury spend, a share that’s likely to hit 40 percent by 2024, according to Boston Consulting Group. So it is understandable that the luxury industry, increasingly dependent on Chinese consumers for continued growth, has looked upon the country’s macroeconomic developments with trepidation.

For next year, we are going to plan a conservative budget because there are many uncertainties in the air and you have to be realistic.

This nervousness has spread to equity investors, too, with luxury stocks down more than 11 percent since the start of October, wiping out $150 billion in combined market value — their worst showing in a decade.

At last week's BoF China Summit in Shanghai, Ermenegildo Zegna Group chief executive, Ermenegildo Zegna, said his company was already seeing domestic consumer demand wane, a condition he attributes to uncertainty created by China's trade war with the US.

“I am more cautious than three months ago. For next year, we are going to plan a conservative budget because there are many uncertainties in the air and you have to be realistic,” he says.

Grey market crackdown

Arguably, the biggest immediate factor concerning global luxury players are unconfirmed reports that China’s continuing crackdown on daigou — parallel imports — will impact consumers buying luxury abroad.

Strictly speaking, Chinese law prohibits people from carrying more than $700 in goods purchased abroad back into the country without paying duties. Traditionally, this hasn’t been enforced, allowing daigou agents to build a thriving industry on the back of overseas luxury purchases, but reports of stricter inspections at Chinese airports over the October Golden Week — a peak international travel period for local consumers — signals trouble for luxury brands because a staggering 32 percent of all purchases made by Chinese consumers are abroad.

When LVMH’s third quarter earnings were released a few weeks ago, it was this development that Jean-Jacques Guiony, the conglomerate’s chief financial officer, called out specifically as an area of concern for the luxury giant, which has seen its share price fall more than 14 percent since the start of October.

Shares in Hong Kong-listed Prada Spa have likewise slumped this month, down more than 25 percent so far over similar concerns. Kering, meanwhile, has seen its share price tumble 23 percent in October.

Speaking at the BoF China Summit, Marco Bizzarri, president and chief executive of Kering's star brand, Gucci, was circumspect about the potential for a daigou crackdown to hurt business.

“I control what I can control. [If] the Chinese authorities decide to stop the daigou, what can I do?” Bizzarri said. “Currency fluctuations, traffic flows, daigou duties. It is something we cannot control as a company, so as a CEO I need to control what I can. I hope that the Chinese customers are now going to spend more in China so we'll do our best to increase their shopping experience here.”

Domestic consumption to the rescue?

In spite of the pessimism enveloping conversations around both China and luxury, there are many, like Bizzarri, who hope the general economic malaise and potential government crackdown on daigou will be countered by ongoing initiatives to boost domestic consumption.

A growing percentage of Chinese consumers’ luxury purchases have been made in China since the government decided to ease import taxes on foreign luxury goods over the past 18 months, prompting brands to better harmonise their pricing and bring the Middle Kingdom more in line with international averages.

In practice, this means a handbag that two years ago could have cost 60 percent more in a Shanghai store than a Parisian store, might now cost only 10 percent more, encouraging consumers to buy locally and forego daigou agents — while simultaneously ensuring the government is at least able to collect something in the way of import duties (which they would miss entirely with an overseas or daigou transaction).

The Chinese government is not stupid. They ask: 'Why are people buying overseas instead of at home?' and the answer is China's policy environment.

Peng Lei is the secretary general of the China E-commerce Department Luxury Authentication Centre in Beijing, a newly-created subsidiary of the central government’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. He sees the lowering of import tariffs and continued targeting of the daigou industry as a logical evolution for China’s domestic luxury industry.

“The Chinese government is not stupid. They ask: ‘Why are people buying overseas instead of at home?’ and the answer is about China’s policy environment which essentially encourages people to buy overseas,” Peng explains.

“The rate of Chinese people going overseas to buy [luxury goods] will become less and less, [government policy] will get rid of daigou. If you have no daigou, then the money can come home and China can support many more stores, servicing more customers. This all represents the core of China’s normalization of the luxury market.”

In other policy moves aimed at promoting domestic consumption — an ongoing theme in President Xi Jinping’s mission to transition China’s economy away from its traditional reliance on manufacturing and exports, the government responded to last week’s disappointing third-quarter GDP announcement with a new tax plan to be introduced January 1.

If enacted as proposed, it will save middle class consumers on school tuition, housing and elder care, among other things, giving them the confidence to continue their spending boom — at home if not abroad.

The role of China’s e-commerce giants

As with all aspects of Chinese consumer spending, the conversation isn’t complete without considering the role of the country’s massive and growing e-commerce sphere.

According to Chenyin Pan, China director of digital agency Fireworks, the increased focus from e-commerce platforms on providing luxury products to consumers around the country – perhaps particularly those in lower tier cities poorly serviced by brick and mortar stores – will also contribute to greater luxury spending within China.

“Until now, luxury companies might have had ads on WeChat and maybe a presence on [Alibaba’s] Luxury Pavilion or [JD.com’s] Toplife, but the consumers were still purchasing at Galeries Lafayette in Paris,” he says.

“In the future, the e-commerce ecosystem in China is going to become so reliable and so convenient that it won’t make sense for consumers to bother so much with shopping for luxury goods overseas,” Pan claims.

Other experts beg to differ, but whatever their forecast, one thing is clear. While this may be just the beginning of China’s economic pain, its consumers remain a hopeful sign on the luxury horizon, even as the where and how they shop continues to change.

时尚与美容
FASHION & BEAUTY

Backstage at Ban Xiao Xue during Shanghai Fashion Week | Photo: Lolita Sharun for YYO Foundation

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科技与创新
TECH & INNOVATION

Source: Shutterstock

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Toutiao Launches E-Commerce
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消费与零售
CONSUMER & RETAIL

The cast of "Crazy Rich Asians" in August 2018  | Source: Getty Images

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政治、经济与社会
POLITICS, ECONOMY & SOCIETY

Illustration: Chelsea Carpenter for BoF

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